The two weeks that EPS took fending off the Sengottaiyan rebellion has since become lost time for the AIADMK as that was also the time Vijay took to go all-out against Stalin and the DMK, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
A case has been registered against the driver of actor-politician Vijay's campaign vehicle in connection with an accident it was allegedly involved in on its way to September 27 Karur rally where a stampede claimed lives of 41 people, police said.
The Karur tragedy has exposed the huge gaps in Vijay's understanding of realpolitik, elections and political administration, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
A senior citizen in his 70s said he has never seen so many people getting killed in a stampede at a political party's event and blamed the youths for their anxiety to somehow take a look at the actor.
Referring to the fatal incident that has so far claimed 41 lives, head of the panel and Bharatiya Janata Party MP, Hema Malini said that political rallies should be properly organised and conducted with full security.
Successive elections since 2019 have proved that the Modi charisma and Shah's strategy does not work in Tamil Nadu. Now, they have to see next year if the DMK is capable of losing, whether to an existing NDA alliance or an expanded version, if one becomes necessary and possible!, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Amit Shah seemingly encouraging AIADMK dissident Sengottaiyan after party boss Edappadi K Palaniswami had removed his one-time mentor from all party posts has not gone down well with party cadres. They are now ready to buy Team EPS' theory that the BJP and Amit Shah are out to liquidate the AIADMK, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Vijay is badly politically wounded.'
Can Vijay's strategy. vision outshine other TN parties?
Vijay is counting on what was once proclaimed as his last filmi outing, Jana Nayagan, or 'People's Hero', to do the trick for him, when it releases on January 9, 2026, only months before the assembly poll, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Deepa Thoon controversy, if not allowed to die a natural death, could take the election focus away from the anti-incumbency impacting the DMK and into the secular space. Stalin would love to have it that way, all over again, after the three past elections, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The EPS camp feels assertiveness will help the AIADMK keep the BJP's seat-share ambitions to the minimum,' observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
This is important because he is to be seen as a sure winner before criss-crossing the state to campaign for candidates of the party or an alliance, highlights N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP's MoSha leadership are past masters in encouraging defections from their allies if it helped their party capture the chief minister's chair. In Bihar, they are not sure if JD-U MPs and MLAs would be willing to cross over to the BJP if the Nitish leadership came on top -- and the NDA crossed the halfway mark together, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam chief Vijay launched his state-wide campaign in Tiruchirappalli, encountering an audio glitch. He criticized both the central government and the DMK government in Tamil Nadu, stating his intention to serve the people, not to amass wealth.
'He was able to push the AIADMK to the background.'
...the DMK chief minister's campaign -- which includes criticism of the BJP's 'pro-Hindutva, anti-Tamil, anti-federal' policies and building on his own government's social welfare programmes targeting especially women and youth -- appeals to Tamil Nadu's voters in next year's assembly election, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Vijay should have stayed there for the night and in the morning he should have met the people.'
Vijay said the TVK respected all languages but would not give up its self respect for another language.
Moving a resolution, Stalin said that in the event of increase in the number of seats in Parliament, 1971 Census should be the basis for it. Also, the 1971 Census should be basis for delimitation of LS seats for 30 years from 2026, he asserted.
Like his father Karunanidhi and AIADMK rivals MGR and Jayalalithaa, Stalin would like to confine his real political work to Tamil Nadu, and not want to take after the late Congress leader K Kamaraj and take up a national role, even if to create greater political space for son Udhayanidhi, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is under pressure from his party as his unclear stand on the BJP alliance has brought back fears among party workers that the party may lose its identity, be forced into an unwanted coalition, and be taken over by the BJP later, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Speaking to ANI on Wednesday, Razvi Bareilvi criticised Vijay for allegedly portraying Muslims negatively in his movies and for inviting individuals involved in gambling and liquor consumption to his iftar party.
Actor-politician Vijay has urged Tamil Nadu Governor RN Ravi to take steps to ensure the safety of women in the state, amid outrage over the sexual assault of a woman student at a technical varsity. Vijay, the founder of the Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), met with the Governor and submitted a memorandum, calling for "protecting" law and order and ensuring women's safety in all places. Vijay's move was lauded by BJP state chief K Annamalai, who called for justice for the victim and urged functionaries of all parties to come forward. The TVK also pressed for the release of Central funds towards Cyclone Fenjal relief.
Over the medium and long term, the BJP hopes to devour the AIADMK, they having identified the party as 'ideologically not as sound as the DMK', predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
Amid widespread outrage and criticism, and opposition demand for a CBI probe, Chief Minister M K Stalin on Tuesday ordered transferring to the central agency, the investigation into death of Ajithkumar (29), who was picked up by a "special team" for interrogation in connection with a theft case.
'Prashant Kishor is a businessman before he is a politician, and given that the expected average turnout for JSP candidates is 5,000 to 6,000 votes and since Bihar has a significant number of seats where the margin between the winner and runner-up falls within that range he will capitalise on exactly that to showcase his presence.'
The Madras high court on Tuesday appointed an inquiry officer into the Sivaganga custodial death case and allowed a CB-CID probe into the matter.
If the DMK is able to sustain the momentum until the assembly polls, the AIADMK especially and the PMK and possibly the infant TVK too would find it hard to sign up with the BJP, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
If the BJP has to work as a junior partner of Vijay's TVK, then either the party will have to change the state leader, or the latter should change himself. Incidentally, ever since Vijay started talking politics and elections, the pro-BJP/Hindutva social media had stopped dragging his name into any non-existing issue.' In particular, they have stopped referring to him by his Christian name, 'Joseph Vijay', observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The vast majority of BJP supporters in Tamil Nadu can't speak any language other than Tamil.' 'When rural Tamil Nadu can't speak any other language than Tamil, how are they going to convince them that they have to learn Hindi?'
EPS has had its way on most things, alliance-wise. A week earlier, he reiterated that he would not re-admit OPS and Sasikala Natarajan back in the party. It was a message not just to detractors in the AIADMK. It was even more so for the BJP leadership in Delhi. Even more important for the AIADMK was their demand for accepting EPS as the chief ministerial candidate of any alliance that the party would form, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
A new entrant, whether a popular actor or not, has not been able to sweep the polls, as their fans had hoped for. Given a proven pattern, it should hold true for Vijay as well. Or, something drastically has to happen between now and 2026, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
Popular Youtuber Savukku Shankar, known for his criticism of the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu, had his residence targeted by a group of individuals who allegedly dumped sewage and human faeces inside. The incident has sparked outrage with opposition leaders condemning the act and demanding swift action. Shankar alleges the attack was orchestrated by a top Tamil Nadu Congress Committee leader and a police official, citing a prior corruption expose he made. The police are investigating the incident.
The PMK has now lent its voice to the protests against the mining of atomic minerals in Kanyakumari.
Where do Vijay and his TVK expect to get their votes from? Vijay has a huge fan following among women, but will they automatically become his voters like they had done for MGR's AIADMK, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
'There was a time when a movie star could win an election just by stepping into politics. That era is over.'
In private, questions are being raised about the wisdom of a 'dual-SIM' leadership during the long run-up to the 2026 assembly polls where 'family rule' could become an election issue, reports N Sathiya Moorthy.
Udhayanidhi's 'untimely' elevation as deputy CM may be used against the party, for critics to argue that the DMK's 'first family's is not concerned about anything else but their clan's welfare. If packaged and delivered properly, some of the sting may stick at election time, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
